The 2025 NBA playoffs are set! An exciting final week saw the Eastern Conference bracket finalized on Friday. The West wasn't set until the last game, an overtime clash between Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors and Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers. There are now officially 20 teams fighting for a chance to win the Larry O'Brien trophy, five of which have never won it all.
In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers claimed the top seed after a dominating, 64-win regular season. But the reigning champions, the Boston Celtics, landed close behind in the No. 2 spot, hungry for a back-to-back Finals win. No team has repeated since the Warriors in 2017 and 2018, making this one of the longest droughts without a repeat champion in NBA history.
The West was a chaotic mess down to the final minute of the regular season. When the Clippers took down the Warriors, claiming the No. 5 seed, and the "opportunity" to face three-time MVP Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets, the No. 6 seed and guaranteed playoff spot went to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will face off against LeBron James and the No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers. The 7-seed Warriors now have to face Ja Morant and the 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies in the play-in..
The play-in tournament begins Tuesday, with the two No. 7 vs. 8 games, and the first round starts Saturday. Until then, our NBA insiders break down all 20 teams -- the good, bad and ugly: their seasons in review, best-case scenarios and key aspects to watch for the play-in and first round.
Note: NBA title and first-round odds for 2025 provided by ESPN BET.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland's road to the postseason:
The Cavs are built on depth and teamwide shooting, with All-Star guards and elite,
defensive-minded bigs. In that way, they are a very modern team, and they've just crushed
opponent after opponent for months on end running their system. That system is designed to
be able to switch on defense with multidimensional players who can play different positions,
and coach Kenny Atkinson has worked on various alignments and lineups throughout the season
to prepare for playoffs.
But they don't have great perimeter size, which is a concerning vulnerability and especially so against Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and East nemesis Boston. That's why the Cavs made a midseason trade for De'Andre Hunter. But they finished the season going 8-8 over their final 16 games. Not exactly the type of momentum a team wants heading into the postseason. -- Brian Windhorst
Will they be elite from 3?
Before March 11, the Cavs were No. 1 in 3-point shooting percentage and had been on top for
months. Since then, they are 19th. Which will it be when it matters?
Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are great playmakers and shotmakers, and the Cavs cover for their defensive shortcomings with a great defensive back line in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. But it works a lot better when their lead guards are making 3s. Mitchell shot 39% before the All-Star break and 30% after. Garland shot 43% before and 34% after. They combine to take 16 triples a game, so these percentage swings make a big difference in their margin for error. -- Windhorst
Best-case scenario:
Any team with Cleveland's regular-season résumé belongs in the top tier of title contenders.
And if Kenny Atkinson plays his starters more in the playoffs -- no Cavalier reached even 32
minutes per game this season -- his team might reach another gear this spring. The Cavaliers
are deep, balanced and electric on offense, and nine years after the first championship in
franchise history, they have a legitimate chance to win another. -- Zach Kram
Net points X factor:
The Cavaliers have easily been the best clutch team in the league. Darius
Garland and Donovan
Mitchell use the most possessions, averaging plus-10.2 and plus-4.6 offensive net
points per 48 minutes, respectively. -- Dean
Oliver
2. Boston Celtics
Boston's road to the postseason:
The defending champions cruised through the season with relative ease, despite dealing with
a series of extended injury absences, particularly for Kristaps
Porzingis. While Cleveland ran away with the conference's top seed, Boston cruised
to a fourth consecutive 50-win season and will enter the playoffs as the odds-on favorite to
return to the NBA Finals for a third time in four seasons. -- Tim
Bontemps
Can the Celtics stay healthy in the
postseason?
Yes, Boston shoots a lot of 3-pointers and is a high-variance team as a result. But if the
Celtics can have a healthy playoff run from all eight of their key rotation players, they
will be the clear favorites to defend their title. But getting that is far from a sure
thing. Porzingis was out for most of last year's playoff run with injuries, and he has
missed more games than he has played this season. Jrue Holiday
has been in and out of the lineup, and Al Horford --
while consistently available and reliable -- is 38. All of which is why, if the Celtics can
stay healthy, no one should be able to handle them in the East, and a second straight title
easily could be theirs. -- Bontemps
Best-case scenario:
Boston has a strong chance to become the first repeat champion of the 2020s. Only four teams
have gone back-to-back in the entire 21st century: the Shaq-and-Kobe Lakers (who won a
three-peat), the Kobe-and-Gasol Lakers, the LeBron-and-Wade Heatand the Durant-era Warriors.
No Celtics squad has repeated since the 1960s! Jayson Tatum and Co. can make history this
spring. --
Kram
Net points X factor:
Luke Kornet
adds more net points per 100 possessions on offensive rebounds and putbacks than any player
in the league at plus-3.7. -- Oliver
3. New York Knicks
New York's road to the postseason:
The Knicks are really good. They're in the midst of their best campaign in more than a
decade but there's just one huge problem: All season long, they've looked one, sometimes
two, steps behind Boston and Cleveland. Against the two best teams in the East, the Knicks
have gone 0-8, with a number of those losses coming in huge routs. (And the last two -- this
past week -- coming after enjoying big leads, then ultimately faltering down the stretch.)
It's a frustrating dichotomy for the franchise and its fanbase: to be vastly better than
most, and a top-five team perhaps, but still far from title contention.-- Chris
Herring
Can the Knicks level up now that the postseason
has arrived?
It's a yearly question for Tom Thibodeau-coached clubs, given the
extensive minutes his starters play relative to the rest of the NBA. And this team
-- with Mikal Bridges
(first in the league in total minutes), Josh Hart
(second) and OG Anunoby
(ninth) -- it's no different. Perhaps Jalen
Brunson's time off rehabbing his injured ankle for nearly a month turns out to be a
good thing, as, in a counterintuitive way, it potentially saved his body from additional
nicks and bruises he might have racked up. With an average of 8.6 minutes of possession,
Brunson handled the ball more per game than any NBA player. -- Herring
What to watch in Round 1:
Aside from how Brunson looks now that he has returned, one of the most compelling things to
watch will be how often Karl-Anthony
Towns and Mitchell
Robinson share the court. The Knicks haven't found their defensive groove yet,
getting burned against a number of the league's best offenses with Towns defending the paint
and Robinson alongside him -- similar to how the Wolves used Rudy Gobert
with Towns. Towns and Robinson shared only 47 minutes of court time, outscoring opponents by
9.2 points per 100 possessions but surrendering a quite-high 118.8 points in that span. But
if the big-man duo can figure things out, it would go a long way toward tightening up the
team's screen-and-roll defense. -- Herring
If New York is healthy, it has the talent to beat anyone in a series. The starting five is that good. But there's little reliable depth beyond that group. The defense has struggled to slow the NBA's best opposing offenses and, most of all, the bracket won't do them any favors. The Knicks should advance to the second round, but once there, it would be a massive surprise if they managed to push the Celtics into a long series, let alone upset the defending champs. -- Kram
Net points X factor:
Jalen Brunson uses 45% of possessions in clutch situations and generates plus-13 offensive
net points per 100 possessions then, both league highs. -- Oliver
4. Indiana Pacers
Indiana's road to the postseason:
On Jan. 1, the Pacers were 16-18 and seemed like a far cry from their appearance in the
Eastern Conference finals one season ago. Indiana has been one of the hottest teams in the
league since, however, finishing the season 50-32 since then while Tyrese
Haliburton looks like one of the best young point guards in the NBA. The Pacers will
take home court in the first round against the Bucks, a rematch of last season's first-round
series, and try to build on last year's surprising playoff run. -- Jamal
Collier
Can Haliburton keep up his production?
The biggest key for the Pacers' turnaround over the past few months has been Haliburton's
return not just to All-Star level but potentially All-NBA as a guard with his elite
offensive ability. He is averaging 18.6 points and 9.2 assists on 51% shooting, including
44% from 3 on 7.2 attempts, while leading Indiana to sixth best offense in the league since
the beginning of January. -- Collier
What to watch in Round 1:
This is a rematch from the first round of the 2024 playoffs when the No. 6 seed Pacers upset
the No. 3 seed Bucks. Indiana enters this year's matchup as the higher seed but has not had
as much success against Milwaukee this season, dropping three of four regular-season
meetings. Still, the biggest difference from last year is the Bucks will have a healthy Giannis
Antetokounmpo for the postseason after injuries limited him in the past two
first-round exits. -- Collier
Best-case scenario:
It hinges largely on whether the Cavaliers' late-season swoon is real or a false alarm. If
Cleveland plays up to its full potential, Indiana's ceiling is a second-round exit. If the
Cavaliers are more vulnerable than their excellent record and point differential suggest,
then the Pacers have a chance to upset the East's No. 1 seed and race back to the conference
finals. Who would have imagined that Boston-Indiana could be a realistic conference finals
matchup two years in a row? -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
The smallest guy on the Pacers team, T.J.
McConnell, gives them the most net points on half-court layups -- plus-1.1 per 48
minutes. Bennedict
Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith
contribute layups in transition at plus-1.4 each. -- Oliver
5. Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee's road
to the postseason:
Year 2 for the Giannis
Antetokounmpo and Damian
Lillard era in Milwaukee has been as inconsistent as the first season. The Bucks
recovered from a disastrous 2-8 start to win the NBA Cup in December, then changed their
team by sending Khris
Middleton to the Wizards for Kyle Kuzma at
the trade deadline. Injuries have depleted the Bucks roster down the stretch, putting
Lillard's
playoff status in jeopardy while leaving Antetokounmpo, who is still playing at an
MVP level, to carry the team. -- Collier
Will Lillard be
able to get on the floor, and will it be enough?
If the Bucks are going to have any chance at a deep playoff run, they are going to need a
healthy Lillard. He was ruled out indefinitely with a blood clot issue in his right calf on
March 25, but the blood thinners have helped, leading to optimism about a potential return
this season. Together, Lillard and Antetokounmpo were the highest-scoring duo in the NBA
this season, and their chemistry has improved in their second year as teammates. -- Collier
What to watch in
Round 1:
As the injuries have piled up for Milwaukee, the team has slid in the standings and will
enter its first-round matchup as a lower seed. This sets the Bucks up for a first-round
rematch with the Pacers, who beat them in six games in the first round last season.
Antetokounmpo's dominance has helped the Bucks enter the playoffs playing some of their best
basketball of the season, winning eight consecutive games to close the season even without
Lillard. But the Pacers have been rolling for months, behind Tyrese Halliburton's return to
All-Star form, putting up the fourth-best record in the NBA (behind Oklahoma City, Cleveland
and Boston) since Jan. 1. -- Collier
Best-case
scenario:
In theory, Antetokounmpo is so sensational he can propel a team to the Finals by himself.
But in reality, the rest of the Bucks are so limited -- especially with Lillard's health
uncertain -- and the East's top teams so dominant that it seems exceedingly unlikely
Milwaukee can make a run to June. The Bucks' best-case scenario in this postseason might
involve a long-term concern more than a short-term focus on the 2025 title: remaining
competitive enough that Antetokounmpo doesn't get dispirited and start angling for a trade
this summer. --
Kram
Net points X
factor:
Antetokounmpo adds plus-2.7 net points per 48 minutes on his half-court layups alone, easily
the best in the league. -- Oliver
6. Detroit Pistons
Detroit's road to
the postseason:
The Pistons put together one of the most remarkable turnarounds in NBA history, going from
14-68 last season -- the worst record ever the year before a playoff berth -- to the No. 6
seed in the East. Under new coach J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit surpassed that win total by New
Year's Day. --
Kevin Pelton
How will the
Pistons' young stars fare in the postseason?
The veterans Detroit added last summer (Malik
Beasley, Tim Hardaway
Jr. and Tobias
Harris) bring plenty of playoff experience, but this will be the postseason debut
for All-Star Cade
Cunningham and fellow starters Jalen Duren
and Ausar
Thompson, all recent lottery picks.
The way Cunningham in particular performs could help shape the Pistons' decision on how aggressively to approach this offseason and beyond. If Cunningham remains the All-NBA contributor he has been during the regular season, Detroit could soon make a run like the Indiana Pacers had in the 2024 playoffs. -- Pelton
What to watch in
Round 1:
Can Cunningham steal the show the way he frequently did during his regular-season matchups
against the Knicks? The guard, who should be an All-NBA lock this season, saved some of his
best showings of the season for the Knicks, averaging 30.8 points and 8.3 assists in four
games against New York, while shooting 56% overall and 52% on 3-pointers. The Knicks had
little answer for Cunningham, especially late in games -- a big part of why Detroit won
three of those four games. It will be interesting to see whether the Knicks use 6-7 standout
defender OG Anunoby at times to try to slow down Cunningham, a bigger ball handler. -- Herring
Best-case
scenario:
This season has already been a complete success for the Pistons, no matter what happens in
the playoffs. But why not win some more games while they're at it? After all, Detroit hasn't
won a single playoff game since 2008. They should stop that drought this month, and they
have the potential to pull a first-round upset and reach the conference semifinals. It's
difficult to imagine a team with such little experience doing any real damage against the
Knicks, but the Pistons will scrap for every point until their magical season comes to an
end. -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
Detroit is second in fast-break points and has four players adding at least plus-1 net point
per 48 minutes in transition: Cunningham, Thompson, Beasley and Ronald Holland
II. --
Oliver
7. Orlando Magic
Orlando's road to
the postseason:
What was once a promising season for the Magic turned as the injury bug hit hard in Orlando.
Two months into the season, the Magic were in third place in the East, trailing only the
Cavs and Celtics Then, they lost their three best players for extended periods -- Paolo
Banchero (for 34 games), Franz Wagner
(20) and Jalen Suggs
(out for season after playing in only 31 games). They've secured the No. 7 seed, and there
should be an abundance of hope for 2025-26. But this season never fully got back on track
after injuries derailed things. -- Herring
Can the Magic
rely on their elite defense to compete in a potential first-round series?
The Magic won two of their three games against the Celtics and limited a depleted Boston
side to a season-low 76 points on April 9. If the Magic slip in Tuesday's play-in game
against Atlanta but make it out of Friday's game as an No. 8 seed, it would set up a rematch
from last spring's clash with Cleveland. The No. 1 seed Cavs took off this season, but that
seven-game series in 2024 should give Orlando confidence it can hang, even with this being a
far better version of Cleveland. -- Herring
What to watch for
in the play-in:
Will the NBA's worst 3-point shooting club remain ice cold from deep when it matters most?
Because of the team's suffocating defense, Orlando still finished with a stellar 12-2 mark
in games in which it managed to knock down 15 triples or more. The flipside is ghastly: The
Magic have gone 5-29 this season when hitting fewer than 10 3s. One of those five victories
came against the Hawks, whom they'll be facing in Tuesday's play-in game. -- Herring
Best-case
scenario:
Even if the Magic advance out of the play-in round, they will almost certainly lose against
the Cavaliers or Celtics. But their manner of defeat could matter in terms of positioning
themselves for the offseason and beyond. A play-in collapse or listless first-round sweep
would tie the bow on a disappointing season; conversely, a competitive effort led by
Banchero and Wagner could build momentum for the future and help the Magic return to
contention in 2025-26. -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
The Magic have the worst offense of any of the 20 postseason teams. Wagner and Banchero each
carry over 30% of the offense, but they each add about only plus-1.5 offensive net points
per 48 minutes. --
Oliver
8. Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta's road to
the postseason:
After drafting Zaccharie
Risacher with the No. 1 pick, trading for Dyson Daniels
and extending the contract of Jalen
Johnson, this season felt like the beginning of a new age for the Hawks. Trae Young
remains a wizard with the ball in his hands and made his fourth All-Star team, but Johnson's
season-ending shoulder injury in January limited this group's upside. That said, the No. 8
seed Hawks will have two shots to reach the playoffs via the play-in tournament. -- Bontemps
Can Young work
some magic?
We saw him do some wild things in 2021 when he and the Hawks dispatched the Knicks and the
76ers en route to reaching the Eastern Conference finals. For all of the talk about Atlanta
transitioning around its collection of young wings, Young is still the straw that stirs the
drink -- especially with Johnson out. If the Hawks are going to make any sort of noise,
Young will need to lead them. -- Bontemps
What to watch for
in the play-in:
With Orlando's Jalen Suggs out, Young should be able to wreak havoc in the 7-8 game. If he
can, Atlanta has a chance to score enough to put Orlando on its heels. The Magic are a
bottom-five offensive team, which should prevent them from being able to take advantage of
Young's defensive deficiencies. And the absence of Suggs should allow Young to create enough
offensive advantages for the Hawks. -- Bontemps
Best-case
scenario:
The last time the Hawks reached the playoffs was in 2022-23, when they earned the No. 7 seed
through the play-in, giving the Celtics a bit of a scare in the first round before
succumbing in six games That exact scenario could recur as their most optimistic outcome: a
win in the 7-8 game, then a spirited loss against Boston in the first round. -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
Daniels guards a player plus-1.6 net points per 48 minutes better than who Young defends.
That's close to the difference between a low-end All-Star and an average player (using
Second Spectrum matchup data). -- Oliver
9. Chicago Bulls
Chicago's road to
the postseason:
The Bulls retooled their roster on the fly, trading away key defender Alex Caruso
last summer and leading scorer Zach LaVine
before the deadline while matching last season's 39-43 record. It's now a younger Chicago
team making a third consecutive play-in appearance. -- Pelton
Can the Bulls get
enough stops?
Their 115 points allowed per 100 possessions ranked 23rd in the league, last among
postseason teams.
Getting Lonzo Ball back healthy after he sat out 47 games with a variety of injuries should help. Chicago gave up eight fewer points per 100 possessions with Ball on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats. Still, the Bulls struggle to protect the rim without a strong shot blocker -- no other team allowed more attempts per game in the restricted area this season -- and rarely force turnovers. -- Pelton
What to watch for
in the play-in:
Keep an eye on how Miami defends Josh Giddey.
Much of the reason Oklahoma City traded Giddey last year stemmed from his struggles from
deep and the fact that opposing clubs were content to let him shoot in the postseason. (OKC
coach Mark Daigneault opted to sit him as the defensive strategy persisted and strangled
spacing.) Yes, Giddey has been a good, improved shooter this season for Chicago, knocking
down a career-best 37.8% from deep, but it wouldn't be shocking if the Heat tested his
jumper in the play-in game. -- Herring
Best-case
scenario:
The Bulls' up-tempo, 3-point-happy approach increases the variance in their games. It's a
solid recipe for winning a game against a superior opponent. But is it enough to win a
series against one of the East's top teams? There's no chance. Chicago could make it to the
first round of the playoffs this year -- the Bulls fell short in the play-in the past two
seasons -- but that's as far as this fun group should go. -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
Chicago loses its games by an average of about two points per game, but their advantage from
3 is not the problem. The Bulls gain plus-2.0 net points per game, fifth best in the league.
-- Oliver
10. Miami Heat
Miami's road to
the postseason:
This season in Miami was defined by Jimmy Butler
III. First, it was Butler's messy divorce from the franchise. Then, after he was
eventually traded to Golden State, it was Miami's complete collapse after the trade deadline
-- in particular, its consistently horrific performances in the fourth quarter, which is why
the Heat find themselves battling it out in the play-in. -- Bontemps
How far can Tyler
Herro and Bam
Adebayo take this group?
Even before the Butler situation blew up, Miami was moving toward its young guard-big combo
becoming the fulcrum of the franchise. And while Herro has taken some massive steps forward,
dramatically increasing his 3-point volume, overall efficiency and making his first All-Star
team, Adebayo's performance has been a disappointment. For Miami to make it to the playoffs,
it's going to need Herro and Adebayo to play their best ball of the season. -- Bontemps
What to watch for
in the play-in:
Can Miami close games? The struggle to finish games has consistently prevented the Heat from
climbing the standings. The Heat can no longer afford to have a bad quarter or their season
will be over. --
Bontemps
Best-case
scenario:
The Heat have recently made a habit of playoff upsets and Cinderella runs. But this version
of the team doesn't appear nearly talented or consistent enough to continue that legacy.
Given the way they've played since trading Butler, the Heat will be fortunate just to make
it out of the play-in rounds, with no realistic chance to go any further if they have to
face the Cavaliers or Celtics in the first round. -- Kram
Net points X
factor:
The Heat are the worst playoff/play-in team in the fourth quarter. Duncan
Robinson particularly drops off, from averaging plus-0.1 net points per 48 minutes
in the first and third quarters to minus-4.8 in the fourth. -- Oliver
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City's
road to the postseason:
The Thunder improved significantly after becoming the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history a
year ago. Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander has positioned himself as the MVP favorite
by efficiently leading the league in scoring while consistently stuffing the box score. Luguentz Dort
leads the league's stingiest defense. Summer additions Isaiah
Hartenstein and Alex Caruso,
a couple of unselfish veteran role players, fit in as seamlessly as anticipated. OKC broke
the NBA record for point differential despite Chet
Holmgren, arguably the Thunder's second-best player, missing the majority of the
season. --
Tim MacMahon
Will a secondary scorer step up?
Gilgeous-Alexander starred in the second round last season, when he averaged 32.2 points on
.507/.550/.833 shooting splits, but Oklahoma City still was eliminated by Dallas in six
games. It was a rough series for Jalen Williams,
who shot only 42.4% from the field. Williams has continued his ascent to stardom this
season, making his first All-Star appearance while averaging career bests of 21.6 points and
5.3 assists. The Thunder have plenty of reason to believe he'll be ready for the challenge
in his second playoff appearance. -- MacMahon
Best-case scenario:
Given we're talking about a team that came just two wins short of 70 wins and finished with
the best point differential in NBA history, the best-case scenario is winning the
championship with ease. The two largest margins of victory in recent vintage came from the
2016-17 Golden State Warriors, who went a
record 16-1 in the playoffs, and last year's Boston Celtics, who finished 16-3. That kind of
dominance is hardly out of the question for Oklahoma City, although the Thunder are all but
certain to face stiffer postseason competition than last year's Celtics did. --
Pelton
Net points X factor:
No player in the league gets more of their productivity from free throws than
Gilgeous-Alexander, who generates plus-3.2 net points per game, well ahead of James Harden at
plus-2.8. -- Oliver
2. Houston Rockets
Houston's road to the postseason:
Houston coach Ime Udoka turned heads before this season when he stated the postseason was
the goal for a team coming off a 41-win campaign. When Houston reached 50 wins on April 2,
Udoka called the mark "a good barometer of where you should be on a yearly basis at
minimum." The Rockets finished with 52 wins and accomplished that as a team built in Udoka's
image: gritty and tough with an emphasis on hustle, physicality and lockdown defense. Star
guard Jalen Green credited
Udoka with "bringing the dog out of us." After a three-game skid to start March, the Rockets
won nine in a row and 15 of the next 17 while leaning heavily into their identity in
preparation for the postseason. Houston ranked near the middle of the pack offensively most
of the season, finishing 12th in offensive rating. Defensively, the Rockets have ranked
consistently in the top five. -- Michael C. Wright
How will Houston overcome their lack of playoff experience?
Only two players in Houston's starting five (Fred VanVleet and
Dillon Brooks)
have competed in the postseason. But the team's physicality and style of play could make up
for that. The most pressing issue for the Rockets is whether they can consistently generate
solid half-court offense when the games slow down and every possession matters. Houston
gives itself a fighting shot there, considering it led the league in offensive rebounding,
which should allow for plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities. Green is the Rockets'
most dangerous scorer, but to make a run, this team needs consistent contributions from
VanVleet, Brooks and first-time All-Star Alperen Sengun to
keep opponents from loading up on the guard. -- Wright
Best-case scenario:
The Rockets overcome their difficulty scoring in the half court by mauling opponents on the
offensive glass and taking advantage of their speed and depth to outrun them. Houston
reaches the conference finals. And while the first of perhaps many matchups to come goes
Oklahoma City's favor, the Rockets win the lottery with the Phoenix Suns' pick. --
Pelton
Net points X factor:
Brooks has averaged plus-1.5 net points per game when getting at least two days off between
games -- compared to minus-3.2 in back-to-backs. There are no back-to-backs in the playoffs,
which should help. -- Oliver
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles' road to the postseason:
Luka Doncic is a Los
Angeles Laker. No matter what happens this postseason, the 2024-25 campaign will be
remembered as a smashing success for the franchise. Lakers vice president of basketball
operations and general manager Rob Pelinka looked outside the box to hire a young coach in
JJ Redick and then landed Doncic in one of the most shocking trades in league history.
As with any Lakers season, there was a fair share of drama -- from LeBron James taking time away from the team to heal physically (and mentally) after a brutal shooting slump in early December, to parting with standout rookie Dalton Knecht in a trade for Hornets big man Mark Williams only for the trade to be rescinded -- but there were far more successes than failures. Austin Reaves emerged as a borderline All-Star, and Dorian Finney-Smith fit in almost immediately as a switchable 3-and-D wing and popular locker room figure. Both Knecht and Bronny James showed flashes of promise, too, further validating the team's scouting department as a strength.
And LeBron and Doncic showed signs of chemistry that will allow them both to lead. -- Dave McMenamin
How will the trio of Doncic, James and Reaves fare in the postseason together?
James, Doncic and Reaves have played just 21 games together. That's it. And Redick is
relying on the three of them to know what buttons to push to keep the Lakers' offense
humming in the playoffs, when their opponents will be game-planning to attack their
vulnerabilities.
Redick, however, dismissed experience as a necessary ingredient for a team to break through with a championship. "I don't buy the theory, I just don't," Redick said. "I think you got to prepare. You got to control what you control. You got to play hard. You got to try to execute. And if you do that, you give yourselves a chance to win." -- McMenamin
What to watch in Round 1:
The Lakers opened the preseason against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Then they played them to
start the regular season. And now they'll get the Wolves in the first round of the playoffs.
Since the rescinded trade for Williams, L.A.'s size has been questioned. Minnesota ranked
15th in rebounds per game this season (44.3); L.A. ranked 26th (42.4). The Lakers will need
to rebound with their wings and guards and not solely rely on center Jaxson Hayes to
control that responsibility. As far as motivation goes, the storyline is pretty rich: Doncic
faces the team he eliminated from the Western Conference finals a year ago, while the Wolves
will look to exact some revenge on the conference finals MVP, now in a different uniform.
-- McMenamin
Best-case scenario:
Doncic and James dial in their chemistry just in time for another deep playoff run. With
opponents continuing to struggle from 3-point range, as they did in the second half of the
season against the Lakers, they beat Minnesota in Round 1 and upset an inexperienced Houston
team in Round 2. As in last year's matchup with Oklahoma City, Doncic sees his teammates get
hot from 3-point range at the right time as the Lakers make their first Finals appearance
since 2020. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
James and Doncic both add plus-2.3 offensive net points per 48 minutes to their teammates'
shooting, either by passing or spacing, the best of any combo in the league. --
Oliver
4. Denver Nuggets
Denver's road to the postseason:
Sputtering since a 37-19 start, the Nuggets made seismic changes, parting ways with coach
Michael Malone and GM Calvin Booth with only three games to go in the regular season. With
David Adelman taking over as interim coach, the Nuggets responded to the shakeup by winning
their final three games to secure the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. Adelman is
emphasizing that players speak up more, and Nikola Jokic and
other players could be seen being more vocal on the sideline. Ownership made the Malone and
Booth moves to end the "cold war" that had been going on between the men and unite the
franchise while giving Jokic the best chance for a deep playoff run. Ownership felt the
players were not responding before the changes, particularly on defense. The Nuggets
understand they have the best player in the world playing his best basketball, averaging a
triple-double for the first time in his career. Denver ownership knows it needs to maximize
these Jokic prime years. The move to Adelman, the architect of the offense, also gives the
Nuggets a chance to get an early look at the longtime assistant before other coach openings
pop up around the league. -- Ohm Youngmisuk
Can Jamal
Murray be Playoff Murray again?
With Jokic playing his best basketball, the Nuggets will need Murray to find the playoff
form that made Denver NBA champions in 2023. Murray has dealt with injuries, most recently a
hamstring injury that went from being day-to-day to keeping him out for six games, but he
returned for the final two of the regular season. Murray didn't look like himself during
part of last postseason and last summer with the Canadian Olympic team. He averaged 21.4
points, 6.0 assists and shot 47.4% this season. When healthy, Murray is one half of one of
the most prolific duos with Jokic, particularly in the postseason. The Nuggets need that
Murray in the playoffs, hitting clutch shots in the fourth quarter, if they are going to
make a deep run again. -- Youngmisuk
What to watch in Round 1:
Plenty of eyes will be on Russell Westbrook
facing his old team and former teammate James Harden in the playoffs. But the matchup that
could very well determine the series is the Clippers' Ivica Zubac on
Jokic. Zubac has taken great strides at ends of the court, averaging 16.8 points, 12.6
rebounds and 1.1 blocks. He has become the anchor of the Clippers' elite defense and will be
paramount in stopping Jokic. Since Jokic entered the league in 2015-16, there have been 20
players to defend him for 100-plus shots as the closest defender. Zubac is the only player
from that group to hold Jokic below 45% shooting, in both the regular season and playoffs,
according to ESPN Research. If Zubac can manage to defend Jokic, and the Clippers don't have
to double team and make Jokic work on the defensive end, that will help Kawhi Leonard and
Harden a great deal. -- Youngmisuk
Best-case scenario:
The Nuggets come together just in time for another run like 2023 under Adelman. Denver
continues to control what has been a favorable matchup with the Clippers dating to the 2020
bubble, and overwhelm Oklahoma City with size and experience. A conference finals rematch
against the Lakers once again goes the Nuggets' way. In a battle of the past two champions,
Jokic overpowers the Celtics' post defenders and Denver takes advantage of poor shooting by
Boston to win a second title in three years. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
Denver has the biggest drop-off between starters and bench. Their starters add a plus-7.5
net points per game and their bench adds minus-3.8. The starters' number is third in the
league behind OKC and Cleveland. -- Oliver
5. LA Clippers
L.A.'s road to the postseason:
After Paul George walked in
free agency without anything in return, the Clippers entered the season without title
expectations for the first time in the Kawhi Leonard era. Still, they defied lowered
expectations despite Leonard missing the first two-plus months due to inflammation in his
knee. James Harden has looked like his vintage self with the ball in his hands. Harden has
become a leader on the team, even pleasantly exceeding the Clippers' expectations when they
acquired him early last season. Norman Powell had
a legit case to be an All-Star next season and Ivica Zubac has been a force in the paint on
both ends. Plus, new assistant Jeff Van Gundy helped Ty Lue transform the Clippers into an
elite defense. L.A. made key trades before the deadline for Bogdan
Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons which
strengthened it's bench for the playoffs. But most importantly, Leonard is working his way
back to his superstar form after a shaky start to the season. -- Youngmisuk
Can Kawhi stay healthy -- especially when it matters most?
This has been the biggest question since the start of training camp. The Clippers and
Leonard spent months working to get the inflammation out of his surgically-repaired knee
that knocked him out of the postseason last year after he was able to play in just two games
in the first-round loss to Dallas. Leonard didn't return until Jan. 4 of this season and the
Clippers have kept him out of back-to-backs, ramping up his workload and even playing 40
minutes in three games in March. The two-time Finals MVP looked like his dominant self in
delivering 33 points, seven assists, six rebounds and three steals in 47 minutes in what was
basically a playoff game to beat Golden State and secure the fifth seed on Sunday. Of
course, as Leonard says himself, the most important thing is finding a way to stay healthy
through the playoffs. Leonard has been limited to just two games in each of the Clippers'
last two playoff series. -- Youngmisuk
What to watch in Round 1:
This is a rematch of the 2020 conference semis when the Clippers collapsed in the bubble and
blew a 3-1 lead to the Nuggets. But this is a much different Clippers team than that one.
George is gone, and Harden is on this squad. The Clippers will need Harden to be the better
playmaker and more clutch point guard than Jamal Murray.
Harden has had a terrific season and emerged as a leader for the Clippers. He will have to
be better than he was in the Clippers' final two playoff games last postseason when he shot
a combined 7-for-28, including 1-for-13 from 3, and scored a total of 23 points in LA's Game
5 and 6 losses to Dallas in the first round. Harden has shot 20% or worse in 13 career
playoff games in which he took 10 or more shots, the second-most such games in postseason
history. The Clippers will need more of the Harden who hit two big 3-pointers at the start
of overtime and finished with 39 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds in Sunday's big win at
Golden State to clinch the fifth seed. -- Youngmisuk
Best-case scenario:
The Clippers' late-season run led by Leonard getting back to All-Star form carries over to
the playoffs. Marrying one of the NBA's best defenses with the ability for Leonard to make
difficult shots in isolation overcomes a relatively quiet postseason from Harden and the
Clippers upset the Nuggets in the first round and the inexperienced Thunder in round two.
Facing the Rockets in a defensive-minded conference finals matchup, the Clippers ride their
isolation scoring and veteran savvy to a first Finals trip in franchise history before the
run comes to an end. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
James Harden benefits tremendously from home cooking, averaging plus-5.0 net points per 48
minutes on their home court and just plus-0.5 on the road. -- Oliver
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota's road to the postseason:
After their most successful season in two decades and a trip to the Western Conference
finals, the Timberwolves made a shocking, financially motivated trade in September, sending
Karl-Anthony Towns to New York in exchange for Julius Randle and
Donte
DiVincenzo. Early returns weren't favorable; both new players struggled to fit in,
and Minnesota started 22-21. But a second-half surge -- featuring better all-around play
from Randle (18.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game post-All-Star; 38% from 3)
and hot shooting from DiVincenzo (45% from 3 post-All-Star) -- has the Timberwolves looking
like a contender again, even if they'll have to maneuver from the bottom of the playoff
bracket this year instead of the top. -- Kram
Who is Minnesota's second scorer and creator behind Anthony
Edwards?
Towns filled that role last year, but now the answer is much less clear. It could be Randle,
but he has a brutal playoff track record, shooting 34% from the field with more turnovers
than assists, albeit in a small sample. DiVincenzo and Naz Reid are role
players more than secondary stars. Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels
and Nickeil
Alexander-Walker are defense-first contributors. And Mike Conley, while
scorching hot of late, is 37, with the lowest scoring average of his career. Any good
playoff defense is going to tilt its coverages to slow Edwards as much as possible;
Minnesota's playoff fortunes may rest on whether his teammates take advantage when he's
doubled. -- Kram
What to watch in Round 1:
Pay close attention to Conley's minutes, particularly on the defensive end. The Lakers' ball
handlers -- Doncic, James and Reaves -- comprise one of the NBA's best trios and are
extremely aggressive at drawing contact and getting to the basket. If Conley isn't holding
up well there, reserve Nickeil
Alexander-Walker -- five inches taller at 6-foot-5 -- figures to be in line for
substantial minutes off the pine. -- Herring
Best-case scenario:
The Timberwolves channel the energy of last season's run to the conference finals they've
been unable to sustain in the regular season without Karl-Anthony Towns. After upsetting the
Lakers in round one, Minnesota takes down the Warriors in round two. This time, Minnesota
comes out on the right side of the conference finals against Oklahoma City, with Edwards
winning MVP of the series. The Timberwolves' run ends in the NBA Finals, but it's still the
most playoff wins in franchise history. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
Minnesota ranks in the NBA's top seven in 3-point attempts, makes, denying 3-point shots to
opponents, and reducing opponent 3-point percentage, which adds up to a plus-3.7 net points
per game advantage overall on 3s -- best in the league. -- Oliver
7. Golden State Warriors
Golden State's road to the postseason:
In their first season without Klay Thompson, the
Warriors jumped out to a 12-3 start and looked like they would be serious contenders in the
West. But they stumbled, going 13-21 before pulling the trigger on
a trade for Jimmy Butler. The move has completely altered
their season, rejuvenating Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and
Steve Kerr while making role players like Brandin
Podziemski and Moses Moody better.
Jonathan
Kuminga missed two months due to a severe ankle injury but has shown flashes of
giving the Warriors a different element with his athleticism. Golden State has been one of
the hottest teams in the league since Butler made his Warriors' debut in Chicago on Feb. 8,
and the Warriors are now a threat to make a deep run. -- Youngmisuk
What can Playoff Jimmy do for Golden State?
Curry
told ESPN in January that he felt that if the Warriors can avoid the play-in
tournament, they can beat anyone in a seven-game series. They'll now have to come out of the
play-in as the No. 7 seed but the Warriors have "Playoff Jimmy", who took the Miami Heat to
two NBA Finals appearances in four seasons. The Warriors won't need Butler to carry them the
same way he did with Miami. But if he can help Curry with the offensive load and close games
while providing Green with a dynamic defensive duo that Kerr has likened to "Pippen
and Jordan," the Warriors could make a run like they did in 2022, when they won
their last title. -- Youngmisuk
What to watch for in the play-in:
The Warriors and Grizzlies have built a little rivalry over the years. Just ask the
Grizzlies and Warriors about "the code." While this play-in will likely be determined by the
two biggest stars on both teams in Curry and Ja Morant, the Warriors will need Green to slow
down fellow Michigan State product Jaren Jackson
Jr. Green is a leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year and will need to
play at that level to contain Jackson, who averaged 22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks
in the regular season. The Warriors will certainly try to get Jackson into foul trouble.
Jackson is averaging 3.5 personal fouls this season. -- Youngmisuk
Best-case scenario:
"Playoff Jimmy" reappears in conjunction with two of the other greatest postseason
overachievers of the past two decades, Curry and Green. After beating Memphis in the opening
play-in game, the Warriors upset the youthful Rockets and win a rematch against the Lakers
in round two, then find themselves with a huge experience edge against Oklahoma City in the
Thunder's first conference finals appearance since losing to the Warriors in 2016. Reversing
that series, Golden State closes out the series at home in Game 6 with Curry channeling Klay
Thompson by scoring 41 points to send the Warriors to a seventh Finals appearance in his
career. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
The Golden State bench has actually outperformed its starters this season, contributing
plus-1.6 net points per game to the starters' plus-1.2. The Warriors are the only
playoff/play-in team doing so. -- Oliver
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis' road to the postseason:
With a new staff of assistant coaches and an innovative equal-opportunity offense that
virtually eliminated ball screens and dribble handoffs, Memphis worked through all the
potential kinks to rack up a record of 36-18 going into All-Star break. The Grizzlies
accomplished that feat despite star guard Ja Morant missing 21 games due to injury. By the
time March rolled around Memphis was starting to slide, losing its first three games to
start the month and eventually dropping 10 of 16 games. That led to the firing on Mar. 28 of
Taylor Jenkins, the winningest
coach in franchise history, and the promotion of new staffer Tuomas Iisalo to interim head
coach. The move was made to optimize Morant, who thrives with the ball in his hands. Memphis
lost its first three games under the new regime. But the team appears lately to be adjusting
to Iisalo and his vision of the offense. -- Wright
Was nine games enough to tweak a system that took most of the season to become accustomed
to?
General manager Zach Kleiman said his "expectations are clarity and direction" moving
forward for the Grizzlies, but that's difficult to accomplish much with so little time.
Memphis' decision to fire Jenkins and assistant Noah LaRoche, who was largely the architect
of the Grizzlies' offense, indicates a level of trust in Morant to play at an elite level
throughout the playoffs. The brass is well-aware of the optics of such a significant move,
but the Grizzlies also feel they've built a deep enough roster to compete at the highest
levels with Morant as the floor general. We've seen that in spurts throughout the regular
season, but it's unclear if the team can sustain it through the playoffs. -- Wright
What to watch for in the play-in:
The Warriors own a 3-1 lead over the Grizzlies in the regular-season series, and they've
bested Memphis in seven out of the past 11 matchups. Given
all the turmoil the Grizzlies have endured recently, along with their lack of deep
postseason experience, they could struggle against a Golden State team anchored with
championship experience in Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Then again, it's worth noting
the Warriors have never won a game in the play-in tournament despite three opportunities,
the last coming in 2021 when ninth-seeded Memphis defeated them in overtime behind a
35-point effort from Morant. Memphis has now played nine games under interim coach Tuomas
Iisalo, and Morant appears to be getting back into a groove now that the Grizzlies are using
a style of play catered toward optimizing the point guard's ability. Expect Morant's
fingerprints to be all over this matchup, but this game could come down to big performances
from Jaren Jackson
Jr. and Desmond Bane. --
Wright
Best case scenario:
Iisalo's reemphasis on the pick-and-roll unlocks the version of Morant we saw in 2021-22 and
2022-23, giving the Grizzlies two elite offensive creators (alongside Jackson) just in time
to make a run through the weaker half of the West bracket after beating the Warriors in the
play-in tournament as they did in 2021. Memphis rides its depth and versatility to a pair of
upset wins and reaches the conference finals for just the second time in franchise history.
The Grizzlies give the Thunder a tough battle there in a preview of the battle for Western
Conference supremacy over the next several seasons, while Iisalo earns the permanent role of
head coach. -- Pelton
Net points x-factor:
Santi Aldama has
added plus-3.2 net points per 48 minutes off the bench, the fifth best mark in the
league.-- Oliver
9. Sacramento Kings
Sacramento's road to the postseason:
Since the end of last season, the Kings have traded De'Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes,
Kevin Hurter and Davion Mitchell
-- four of their top eight players in minutes in 2023-24 -- and replaced them with DeMar DeRozan, Zach
LaVine, Jonas Valanciunas
and Jake LaRavia. Yet
despite all that movement, Sacramento is right back where it started: in the 9 vs. 10
play-in game, a fringe contender just hoping to make the playoffs in a competitive West.
-- Kram
Was the Kings' playoff trip in 2022-23 a fluke rather than the new norm?
It's impossible to overstate how much Sacramento's run two years ago meant to the franchise,
which had gone 16 consecutive seasons without a playoff trip. For one magical season, the
Kings were competitive again, and they lit the beam all the way through a seven-game loss to
the rival Warriors in the first round. But in a more competitive Western Conference last
year, the Kings dropped from third to ninth, despite just two fewer wins, and fell in the
play-in round. And this season, they've taken another step back, trading Fox and gliding to
a losing record as they face another play-in gauntlet. Unless Sacramento can win two play-in
games and put up a surprising fight against the Thunder in the first round, the team might
have to confront larger existential questions this offseason. That seven-game clash against
the Warriors was so cathartic, but now it feels like it was so long ago. -- Kram
What to watch for in the play-in:
How well does Sacramento, the league's worst team against the 3, defend the arc during the
play-in stage? The team pieced together a good mark of 38-11 when it managed to hold teams
under 40% from deep. When opponents shot 40% or better, though, it almost always ended
poorly for the Kings, who were just 7-26 in those games. The Kings went 3-0 against Dallas
in the regular season, including a February game in which Sacramento squeaked out a
one-point overtime win despite the Mavs
hitting 40.5% of their tries from deep. -- Herring
Best-case scenario:
At this point, just making the playoffs is probably a best-case scenario for the Kings.
Sacramento can only be the eighth seed, which would mean being overwhelming underdogs in the
first round against the Thunder. The Kings lost all three head-to-head matchups between the
teams by an average of nearly 24 PPG. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
As a team, the Kings are plus-1.4 net points per game immediately after an offensive
rebound, highest in the league. -- Oliver
10. Dallas Mavericks
Dallas' road to the postseason:
Neither of the stars from last season's Finals run will step onto the floor for the Mavs
this postseason. Luka Doncic now
plays for the Lakers after Mavs GM Nico Harrison made the shocking decision to trade
a perennial MVP candidate as he approaches his prime. Kyrie Irving suffered
a torn ACL on March 3, the most significant of a series of injuries that left the
Mavs struggling to have the league minimum of eight available players for a stretch as
Dallas fell below .500. -- MacMahon
Can Anthony Davis be
dominant enough for the Mavs to pull off a massive upset?
It's not fair to expect this from Davis, a 10-time All-Star who was the headliner in Dallas'
return for Doncic. That's especially true with Davis still ramping back up after missing six
weeks due to a strained
left adductor suffered in his Mavs debut. But the best-case scenario for the Mavs is
a first-round matchup with the top-seeded Thunder. A historically spectacular series from
Davis is the only way the Mavs would have any hope.
What to watch for in the play-in:
Can the Mavs bully-ball their way to a pair of road wins? Dallas' guard depth is depleted,
as Kyrie Irving has been
out since March 3 and recent two-way conversion Brandon
Williams, their most dynamic off-dribble creator down the stretch, exited the
regular-season finale because of a strained left oblique. The Mavs' double-big lineups will
have to do a lot of damage. Davis and Dereck Lively
II have played only 54 minutes together, but the Mavs have outscored opponents by 13
points with that duo on the floor. -- MacMahon
Best-case scenario:
The Mavericks are the one team in the bottom half of the play-in tournament that can
plausibly hope to make a run. Losing Irving took away Dallas' title-caliber upside, but the
Mavericks' deep and versatile frontcourt could present some challenges for Oklahoma City in
the first round. Realistically, however, Dallas would probably be hoping just for a long
series that showcases how dangerous the Mavericks could be with Irving back for the 2026
playoffs. -- Pelton
Net points X factor:
Klay Thompson went to Dallas to play with Doncic and he added plus-1.1 offensive net points
per 48 minutes when they were on the court together. But Doncic is gone, and Klay is
averaging minus-1.4 without him. -- Oliver